Taiwan elections: 5 things to know about the stakes, stances and system
Under China's shadow, island braces for one of Asia's most consequential elections
TAIPEI -- The only free and fair elections in the Chinese-speaking world will take place Saturday, as Taiwan's voters choose their next leader and lawmakers.
Taiwan is rated among the freest democracies in Asia, according to U.S. research institute Freedom House. On election day, around 19.5 million eligible voters out of a population of 23 million will get the opportunity to have their say.
Polling stations will open at 8 a.m. and close at 4 p.m., with results expected by the evening. Postal voting and advance voting are not allowed; voters must return to their home counties to cast their ballots.
The field is colorful. Veteran politician and current Vice President Lai Ching-te and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, formerly Taiwan's de facto ambassador to the U.S., represent the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.
Ex-police chief and New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih drafted in conservative media firebrand Jaw Shaw-kang to form the main opposition Kuomintang's ticket. Political maverick Ko Wen-je of the upstart populist Taiwan People's Party teamed up with Cynthia Wu Hsin-ying, a young female lawmaker and Shin Kong business dynasty scion.
The elections, which will also choose the legislature's 113 representatives, are taking place in the shadow of explicit threats and coercive interference from neighboring China, which has grown increasingly bellicose under President Xi Jinping. On Tuesday, a Chinese satellite flew over the island, triggering mobile phone alerts.
"Taiwan is now a democracy threatened by an aggressive neighbor, and collectively free and open countries need to impress upon the government in Beijing that the best way forward would be to come to a peaceful coexistence with Taiwan," said a report published Monday by the Council on Geostrategy, a London think tank.
Here are five things to know about the pivotal vote.
What is at stake?
Lai, Hou and Ko are competing in one of Asia's most consequential elections this year. Taiwan -- not only an island democracy but also a semiconductor superpower -- is considered the front line of China's expansionism.
The upcoming elections will determine if Taipei will continue to push back against Beijing's bellicosity and strengthen its defense as a partner of U.S.-led democracies.
For Ivan Kanapathy, formerly a senior official at the U.S. National Security Council, the next few years are critical for Taiwan to beef up defense reforms in the face of China's aggression.
"The next four years will open a window whereby the growing ideological gulf between China and Taiwan, and the People Liberation Army's increasing offensive capacity, may lead Beijing to conclude that military aggression is an option worth pursuing," Kanapathy told Nikkei Asia.
How do the presidential and legislative elections work?
Taiwan's president is its head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The president and the vice president are directly elected together.
The unicameral legislature, known as the Legislative Yuan, has 113 lawmakers. Seventy-three will be elected under a first-past-the-post system in single-member districts, 34 by party-list proportional representation voting, and six by single non-transferable votes in multimember districts exclusively for Indigenous people.
Presidents are in charge of defense and foreign affairs, including relations with China and the U.S., and appoint the premier, who forms his or her cabinet to run the government. In practice, the premier has much less political power than the president. Parliamentarians in the Legislative Yuan pass laws and decide on budgets, including defense allocations.
Whoever wins on Saturday will succeed current President Tsai Ing-wen on May 20. They will serve until May 2028.
How do the candidates differ on policy?
On paper, the contenders have broadly similar manifestos on defense reforms, social welfare, public service and U.S.-Taiwan relations.
"The candidates don't differ a lot in terms of social policies and policies that can fundamentally shift Taiwan towards a more progressive social landscape. But none go far enough to address Taiwan's cost of living and housing crises," said Taipei-based researcher and fair-wage advocate Roy Ngerng.
"Taiwan's overall labor and social conditions are worse off than other advanced countries and require major reforms to catch up," Ngerng said.
They differ mostly on China and issues such as the death penalty. Hou strongly opposes abolishing capital punishment while Jaw pledged to execute most death row inmates within three months if elected. This would be a major break from Tsai, who has not overseen an execution in more than three years. Lai says abolishing the death penalty requires a high degree of public support.
Hou and Ko promised to resume talks with China on a now-abandoned trade pact -- a move Lai opposes. Then KMT President Ma Ying-jeou sought to strike a deal with Beijing but was forced to give up after weeks of student-led mass protests and occupation of the legislature.
"Increasing trade with China, on top of Taiwan's already significant dependence on the Chinese market, would undermine Taiwan's economic security and empower Beijing's coercion," said Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy of Taiwan's National Dong Hwa University.
How serious is China's intervention this time?
Chinese government officials have repeatedly framed the presidential race as a choice between war and peace. That is only part of their heavy-handed meddling, which also ranges from aggressive military incursions and mysterious balloons floating across Taiwan to trade sanctions and disinformation tactics.
In a press briefing on Wednesday, Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu categorized the balloons as part of China's "gray zone activities" and warned of efforts to sway the election in Beijing's favor.
Examples of apparent coercion include tax probes into Foxconn factories in China after its founder Terry Gou launched a presidential bid. His entry into the race raised the prospect of splitting the opposition vote, benefiting the pro-sovereignty DPP.
Taiwan "faces everyday political, economic and military pressures from China that harden social divisions and raise the risk of unintended conflict," International Crisis Group said in a report published in October.
Under President Xi, Beijing has become more impatient for "unification" -- China's term for a political union with its neighbor -- and more willing to use coercion to achieve its goals, the ICG said. Communist China claims Taiwan as part of its territory, although it has never ruled it.
"Apart from Taiwan, the rest of the world is also under attack from misinformation and cognitive warfare. It is clear that preventing the threat of misinformation and cognitive warfare has become an international consensus," presidential office spokesperson Olivia Lin told Nikkei Asia.
"We must strictly guard against attempts by authoritarian countries to undermine democracy through cyber warfare, disinformation and other means," Lin said.
How important is the legislative election?
The Legislative Yuan plays a key role in Taiwan's democracy and governance. The president names leaders of key institutions such as members of the judiciary, including the Constitutional Court, and other constitutional bodies with consent from the legislature.
If Lai wins the presidency and the KMT secures a majority in the Legislative Yuan, it could spell constant fighting between the executive and the assembly. This happened before, most dramatically during DPP President Chen Shui-bian's tenure.
While the president appoints the premier, the Legislative Yuan can oust him or her by a vote of confidence, which requires 57 lawmakers to vote in favor, according to Brian Hsieh, a lawyer and partner at Taipei-based law firm Formosa Transnational.
"In this situation, the premier must resign but may also request the president to dissolve the Legislative Yuan. After a dissolution, an election for the new lawmakers shall be held within 60 days," Hsieh told Nikkei Asia.
The legislature has the power to push back against the government's plans and defense reforms by rejecting the proposed budgets. In the 2000s, KMT lawmakers torpedoed the DPP government's attempt to import American submarines.